Impact of Ongoing Conflicts on Middle Eastern Aviation: A Detailed Analysis by ACI APAC & MID

The Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & MID), which represents over 600 airports across 45 countries, has recently unveiled a comprehensive report that evaluates the ongoing military conflicts and their toll on the region’s aviation infrastructure. This extensive report, conducted with Flare Aviation Consulting, spans from the conflict’s onset up to April 30, 2026.

The findings reveal that Middle Eastern airports, given their critical geographic location, are experiencing severe constraints in the global air transport system. These airports serve as vital transit points bridging Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, and are carrying a substantial portion of the operational burden amid the instability.

In 2025, the nine major airports analyzed in the report facilitated the movement of approximately 324 million passengers, accounting for about 70% of the region’s air traffic. However, disruptions have sent shockwaves throughout the global aviation network. In March and April 2026, airport capacities were reduced to just 53% of their pre-conflict schedules. On the conflict’s first day, operations dramatically fell to 32% of their expected capacity, with a modest recovery to 63% by the end of April—illustrating the resilience of aviation operations in these challenging times.

The Asia-Pacific region saw around 197 million passengers flying to Western destinations in 2025, averaging 540,000 passengers per day. Among these, around 97,000 travelers—18%—navigated through the impacted Middle Eastern hubs daily. The conflict, compounded by the closure of Gulf airspace, led to a drastic drop in East-West connectivity, eliminating nearly 20% of global air capacity shortly after hostilities began—a devastating blow to international air travel.

Financial Implications of Aviation Disruptions

The financial consequences of these disruptions have been staggering. The estimated revenue loss for the nine key airports during the two-month crisis ranges from $900 million to $1 billion, compared to a projected target of $1.3–1.4 billion. This indicates a shocking 55% deficit in expected revenues, worsened by fixed cost structures, long-term capital commitments, and regulatory demands that leave these airports with limited options for absorbing such losses.

With both passenger and cargo volumes plummeting, airport operators are increasingly grappling with cash flow issues. Many operators are deeply invested in long-term infrastructure projects and are faced with the daunting challenge of managing financial strains while sustaining their commitments.

Passenger and Cargo Volume Declines

During the tumultuous months of March and April 2026, around 27 million passengers were unable to travel as initially planned across these nine airports, marking a significant 54% decrease from the previous year. March alone saw a staggering drop of 14 million travelers—a 57% decline—while in April, the figures improved slightly, with a reduction of 13 million passengers representing a 50% drop year-on-year.

The cargo sector has not been spared, experiencing its own set of challenges. The total freight volume managed by these airports amounted to 571,000 tonnes over the two months, significantly lower than the 1.19 million tonnes processed during the same period in 2025—a decline of 52%. March was particularly tough, as cargo volumes were down 59% compared to the previous year, totaling just 259,000 tonnes. Although April’s figures showed signs of recovery at 312,000 tonnes, they were still 43% below the previous year’s totals.

Escalation of Airfares

The effects of the ongoing conflict are notably pronounced on long-haul travel from Asia to Western destinations. Airfares for direct flights surged, with prices increasing to over double their previous levels by March, reaching 185% of 2025 costs for indirect routes through the region. By July and August 2026, fares remained about 50% higher than their pre-conflict benchmarks.

This inflation in airfares can be largely attributed to a diminishing competitive landscape. With traffic shifts favoring European and Asian carriers, airlines face fewer competitors, giving them the leverage to hike prices. Thus, unless market imbalances and cost pressures ease, elevated fares are expected to persist in the near future.

The ongoing conflict in the Gulf not only imposes significant strain on the region’s aviation infrastructure but has also resulted in extensive financial damage. As developments continue to unfold, both airports and airlines will be compelled to adapt to the evolving dynamics of global air travel, aiming to maintain operational sustainability amidst pressing challenges.

A Lasting Need for Investment

Despite the rising airfares, airport charges have remained stable, reflecting established regulatory practices that prevent further strain on air travel expenses. However, with a projected passenger count of 3.9 billion in 2024 potentially soaring to over 11 billion by 2054, substantial capital investment in airport infrastructure is essential.

To navigate these challenges and ensure the seamless operation of airports, timely investments are crucial. Delays in capital improvements could significantly hinder the region’s capacity to manage increasing air traffic effectively.

Looking Ahead

As traffic trends in Asia-Pacific remain robust, the region’s airports have reported positive growth in general, with some routes to the Middle East showing declines. According to a recent ACI survey, rising jet fuel prices are one of the most pressing challenges. Although fuel supplies remain stable, soaring costs continue to prevail, nearly doubling pre-conflict levels, complicating airport operations.

In response, many airports have begun implementing contingency plans and bolstering their fuel reserves to manage the burgeoning costs effectively. However, government support is limited, underscoring the need for a comprehensive strategy to strengthen fuel security and diversify supply chains.

Stefano Baronci, Director General of ACI APAC & MID, stated: “Middle Eastern hubs are not mere regional assets; they play a pivotal role in global aviation. The disruptions witnessed over these two months highlight the airports’ essential function in fostering connectivity and stimulating socio-economic growth. While the aviation ecosystem is demonstrating resilience, extended instability may severely impact the economic sustainability of the sector.” The anticipated recovery trajectory suggests a gradual return to pre-crisis levels; however, persistent geopolitical tensions and rising fuel costs pose significant hurdles to this endeavor.

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